Archive for November, 2021

In 100 Words: Certainty is a Mirage

Monday, November 1st, 2021 by Troy Schrock

Leaders should become comfortable making decisions with probability-based thinking. The future is uncertain and the environments in which we operate are fluid.

Some leaders get stuck waiting for more information, a better view. It appears certainty is just ahead… one last question, one final piece of information. But, certainty is a mirage. As soon as you receive the information “certainty” evaporates like the proverbial desert oasis shimmering in front of you.

Two dangers of certainty-thinking:
• Decisions bog down and progress slows
• Absolute-outcome thinking closes off to options for alternatives.

There comes a time decisions must be made and actions taken.

“…logical method and form flatter that longing for certainty and for repose which is in every human mind. But certainty generally is illusion, and repose is not the destiny of man.” Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr.

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